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如何分析趋势线(图)

如何分析趋势线

第一节(jie)  趋势线基本(ben)原理及其绘制方(fang)法简介

    在(zai)股(gu)(gu)票技术分析(xi)基础(chu)理论中,有(you)(you)一种(zhong)极其(qi)重要的方法,或者说是一种(zhong)流派,那就(jiu)是趋势分析(xi)法。而(er)趋势分析(xi)法中最(zui)重要的工具(ju)就(jiu)是线(xian)形(xing)分析(xi)。几(ji)乎(hu)所有(you)(you)的股(gu)(gu)市(shi)投次人都知道在(zai)K线(xian)图上(shang)利用画线(xian)的方法对股(gu)(gu)价的未(wei)来走势进行分析(xi)这件(jian)事,而(er)不(bu)管(guan)他(ta)是精通此道还是初学入门,下(xia)面我们(men)就(jiu)对趋势分析(xi)方法展开讨论。

    初学(xue)画线(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)投资人在(zai)(zai)观察K线(xian)(xian)(xian)图(tu)时,很可能他(ta)首先发现的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)就(jiu)是(shi):几(ji)乎所有的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)次级和(he)大部(bu)分的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)级趋(qu)势(shi)(shi)(shi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)都呈(cheng)现出直(zhi)(zhi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)状态。起初,人们(men)可能还会认为这(zhei)仅仅是(shi)个巧合(he),但再深(shen)入地(di)进行(xing)了解你(ni)就(jiu)会发现:不仅仅局限于(yu)较小的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)波(bo)动,你(ni)就(jiu)是(shi)把连(lian)续几(ji)年(nian),甚至更长的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)原(yuan)始(shi)趋(qu)势(shi)(shi)(shi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)在(zai)(zai)K线(xian)(xian)(xian)图(tu)上(shang)连(lian)接起来,也和(he)用一(yi)(yi)(yi)把直(zhi)(zhi)尺绘制(zhi)在(zai)(zai)K线(xian)(xian)(xian)图(tu)上(shang)一(yi)(yi)(yi)样地(di)精确!而且时间越长,它的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)趋(qu)势(shi)(shi)(shi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)就(jiu)越接近(jin)于(yu)直(zhi)(zhi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)。如果我们(men)把一(yi)(yi)(yi)条(tiao)棉线(xian)(xian)(xian)拉直(zhi)(zhi)放(fang)在(zai)(zai)若干个股(gu)(gu)价(jia)(jia)趋(qu)势(shi)(shi)(shi)图(tu)上(shang),我们(men)会惊奇地(di)看到:在(zai)(zai)股(gu)(gu)价(jia)(jia)处于(yu)上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)趋(qu)势(shi)(shi)(shi)时,其最(zui)低点(dian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)连(lian)线(xian)(xian)(xian)几(ji)乎就(jiu)是(shi)一(yi)(yi)(yi)条(tiao)直(zhi)(zhi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)。股(gu)(gu)价(jia)(jia)回(hui)落的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)最(zui)低点(dian)几(ji)乎无一(yi)(yi)(yi)例外(wai)地(di)落在(zai)(zai)这(zhei)条(tiao)线(xian)(xian)(xian)上(shang)而反弹上(shang)涨,而在(zai)(zai)股(gu)(gu)价(jia)(jia)处于(yu)下跌(die)趋(qu)势(shi)(shi)(shi)时其最(zui)高点(dian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)连(lian)线(xian)(xian)(xian)也几(ji)乎就(jiu)是(shi)一(yi)(yi)(yi)条(tiao)直(zhi)(zhi)线(xian)(xian)(xian),股(gu)(gu)价(jia)(jia)反弹时的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)最(zui)高点(dian)几(ji)乎无一(yi)(yi)(yi)例外(wai)地(di)触到这(zhei)条(tiao)线(xian)(xian)(xian)而回(hui)落下跌(die)。换句(ju)话说:股(gu)(gu)票(piao)市(shi)场的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)波(bo)动是(shi)由一(yi)(yi)(yi)连(lian)串的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)波(bo)纹(wen)(wen)所组成,这(zhei)些波(bo)纹(wen)(wen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)底部(bu)形(xing)成了一(yi)(yi)(yi)条(tiao)向上(shang)倾(qing)斜的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)直(zhi)(zhi)线(xian)(xian)(xian),而股(gu)(gu)票(piao)市(shi)场的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)下跌(die)波(bo)动同样也是(shi)由一(yi)(yi)(yi)连(lian)串的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)波(bo)纹(wen)(wen)组成,不过这(zhei)些波(bo)纹(wen)(wen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)顶部(bu)形(xing)成的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)一(yi)(yi)(yi)条(tiao)向下倾(qing)斜的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)直(zhi)(zhi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)而已。这(zhei)两条(tiao)线(xian)(xian)(xian)-----连(lian)接连(lian)续性上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)波(bo)纹(wen)(wen)底部(bu)所形(xing)成的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)上(shang)倾(qing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)线(xian)(xian)(xian)与连(lian)接连(lian)续性下跌(die)波(bo)纹(wen)(wen)顶部(bu)所形(xing)成的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)下倾(qing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)线(xian)(xian)(xian)就(jiu)是(shi)我们(men)今天(tian)要讨论(lun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“股(gu)(gu)票(piao)操(cao)作(zuo)技术分析的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)基本趋(qu)势(shi)(shi)(shi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)”。

上(shang)升趋势

下降趋势

    为什么要把(ba)连接连续性(xing)上升波(bo)纹底(di)部所形(xing)(xing)成的(de)(de)(de)(de)上倾的(de)(de)(de)(de)线(xian)与连接连续性(xing)下跌(die)波(bo)纹顶部所形(xing)(xing)成的(de)(de)(de)(de)下倾的(de)(de)(de)(de)线(xian)称之(zhi)为“股票操作技术(shu)分析的(de)(de)(de)(de)基本趋势线(xian)”呢?这(zhei)还要从(cong)“线(xian)形(xing)(xing)分析”这(zhei)个概念说起。

    线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)形分(fen)析(xi)(xi),简(jian)单(dan)地(di)(di)说(shuo)就是(shi)所(suo)谓的(de)“切(qie)线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)”它是(shi)运用(yong)(yong)图形画线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)方法来预测股(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)的(de)未来走(zou)(zou)势(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)种方法。每一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)种线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)型(xing)都(dou)是(shi)建(jian)立在(zai)(zai)相(xiang)关的(de)技术分(fen)析(xi)(xi)理(li)(li)论(lun)之(zhi)上(shang)的(de),都(dou)是(shi)对技术分(fen)析(xi)(xi)理(li)(li)论(lun)的(de)线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)形表达。线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)形分(fen)析(xi)(xi)包含了(le)极(ji)其丰富(fu)的(de)技术内涵(han),它表达了(le)股(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)走(zou)(zou)势(shi)(shi)(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)时(shi)(shi)间(jian)和(he)空间(jian)、角(jiao)度(du)(du)和(he)距离、平衡和(he)反(fan)转等等重要的(de)概念。在(zai)(zai)线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)形分(fen)析(xi)(xi)的(de)方法中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),包含了(le)趋(qu)势(shi)(shi)(shi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、江恩角(jiao)度(du)(du)线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、黄金分(fen)割线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、波段(duan)线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、任意角(jiao)度(du)(du)线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、扇型(xing)线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、百分(fen)比线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)形回(hui)归(gui)线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、回(hui)归(gui)通道线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、周(zhou)期线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、音阶(jie)线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、抛物(wu)线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、正弦线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、螺(luo)旋历法线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、匀加速线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、折线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、费波南(nan)茨数字线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等等,形形色色,名目繁多的(de)线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)形。而(er)(er)其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)最(zui)(zui)原始、最(zui)(zui)基础、最(zui)(zui)简(jian)便、最(zui)(zui)重要、最(zui)(zui)常用(yong)(yong)的(de)就是(shi)趋(qu)势(shi)(shi)(shi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian),它是(shi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)形分(fen)析(xi)(xi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)最(zui)(zui)核(he)心(xin)的(de)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)方法。在(zai)(zai)股(gu)(gu)市(shi)(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)最(zui)(zui)常用(yong)(yong)的(de)谚语“顺势(shi)(shi)(shi)而(er)(er)为(wei)”、“逆大(da)势(shi)(shi)(shi)者(zhe)(zhe)必(bi)败”等等都(dou)是(shi)强调(diao)趋(qu)势(shi)(shi)(shi)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)在(zai)(zai)交易(yi)决策中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)重要性(xing)(xing)的(de)。股(gu)(gu)价上(shang)涨(zhang)或者(zhe)(zhe)下(xia)跌,如果(guo)已经确认是(shi)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)段(duan)涨(zhang)势(shi)(shi)(shi)或者(zhe)(zhe)是(shi)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)段(duan)跌势(shi)(shi)(shi),其股(gu)(gu)价波动(dong)必(bi)将朝原有(you)的(de)方向进(jin)行(xing)。在(zai)(zai)上(shang)升行(xing)情里,虽然(ran)有(you)时(shi)(shi)也(ye)会出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)现(xian)下(xia)跌,却(que)不影(ying)响随后的(de)涨(zhang)势(shi)(shi)(shi),且不时(shi)(shi)有(you)新(xin)高(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)现(xian):在(zai)(zai)下(xia)跌行(xing)情中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),即使是(shi)有(you)较大(da)的(de)反(fan)弹出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)现(xian),也(ye)不能再创出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)新(xin)高(gao)(gao)(gao)。相(xiang)反(fan)地(di)(di),新(xin)的(de)低(di)点却(que)屡(lv)屡(lv)产生。为(wei)什(shen)么会出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)现(xian)这种现(xian)象呢?如果(guo)剔(ti)除其他的(de)因素,只从市(shi)(shi)场(chang)(chang)投(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)人的(de)人性(xing)(xing)和(he)市(shi)(shi)场(chang)(chang)各方博(bo)弈的(de)角(jiao)度(du)(du)来分(fen)析(xi)(xi),那就是(shi):在(zai)(zai)股(gu)(gu)价上(shang)升时(shi)(shi),投(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)大(da)众(zhong)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)片(pian)看(kan)好,都(dou)在(zai)(zai)回(hui)落时(shi)(shi)加码买进(jin),股(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)的(de)期望(wang)植被(bei)人为(wei)地(di)(di)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)。当(dang)股(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)回(hui)落到前(qian)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)个(ge)低(di)点附近之(zhi)前(qian),早(zao)有(you)对该股(gu)(gu)看(kan)好的(de)投(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)(zhe)提(ti)前(qian)挂单(dan)买进(jin),从而(er)(er)阻(zu)止了(le)股(gu)(gu)价的(de)进(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)下(xia)跌而(er)(er)上(shang)涨(zhang)。相(xiang)反(fan)下(xia)跌时(shi)(shi),投(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)大(da)众(zhong)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)致看(kan)坏(huai),都(dou)在(zai)(zai)反(fan)弹时(shi)(shi)积极(ji)卖出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu),股(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)的(de)期望(wang)值(zhi)被(bei)人为(wei)地(di)(di)下(xia)降,在(zai)(zai)股(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)上(shang)涨(zhang)到前(qian)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)个(ge)高(gao)(gao)(gao)点之(zhi)前(qian),早(zao)有(you)对该股(gu)(gu)看(kan)坏(huai)的(de)投(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)(zhe)提(ti)前(qian)挂单(dan)卖出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu),大(da)量的(de)抛售筹码在(zai)(zai)排队等候兑(dui)现(xian),从而(er)(er)促使了(le)股(gu)(gu)价的(de)进(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)下(xia)跌而(er)(er)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)再创出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)新(xin)低(di)。这就是(shi)趋(qu)势(shi)(shi)(shi)线(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)虽然(ran)简(jian)单(dan),但却(que)非常实(shi)用(yong)(yong)的(de)机理(li)(li)所(suo)在(zai)(zai)。说(shuo)白了(le),股(gu)(gu)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)市(shi)(shi)场(chang)(chang)其实(shi)就是(shi)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)个(ge)利用(yong)(yong)投(tou)资(zi)(zi)(zi)大(da)众(zhong)心(xin)理(li)(li)活(huo)动(dong)来进(jin)行(xing)博(bo)弈角(jiao)逐的(de)场(chang)(chang)所(suo)。

    股票(piao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)价(jia)格(ge)波动(dong)遵(zun)循趋(qu)(qu)(qu)势(shi)(shi)而(er)移动(dong)。这种(zhong)趋(qu)(qu)(qu)势(shi)(shi)可能是上(shang)升、下跌,或者(zhe)横向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)发展(zhan)(水平移动(dong))。根据(ju)它们(men)朝(chao)某一(yi)方(fang)向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)移动(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)时(shi)间长短(duan),趋(qu)(qu)(qu)势(shi)(shi)线还可以(yi)简(jian)单地分为:主要(yao)(原始)移动(dong)(短(duan)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)趋(qu)(qu)(qu)势(shi)(shi))、中(zhong)(zhong)级移动(dong)(中(zhong)(zhong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)趋(qu)(qu)(qu)势(shi)(shi))以(yi)及次级移动(dong)(长期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)趋(qu)(qu)(qu)势(shi)(shi))。几次同方(fang)向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)移动(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)短(duan)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)趋(qu)(qu)(qu)势(shi)(shi)可以(yi)形(xing)成中(zhong)(zhong)级趋(qu)(qu)(qu)势(shi)(shi),再(zai)(zai)(zai)由几次同方(fang)向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)移动(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)级趋(qu)(qu)(qu)势(shi)(shi)组成长期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)趋(qu)(qu)(qu)势(shi)(shi)。当长期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)趋(qu)(qu)(qu)势(shi)(shi)走到尽头,股价(jia)无法再(zai)(zai)(zai)朝(chao)同方(fang)向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)发展(zhan)时(shi),就(jiu)会发生逆(ni)转,朝(chao)相反的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)转变(bian)而(er)再(zai)(zai)(zai)形(xing)成另外的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)种(zhong)长期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)趋(qu)(qu)(qu)势(shi)(shi)。市场(chang)就(jiu)是这样周(zhou)而(er)复始,循环推(tui)进的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de),充分体(ti)现出了大(da)自然“螺旋式上(shang)升,周(zhou)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)性(xing)演(yan)变(bian)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)永恒(heng)规律。

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